About Inference

Inference is a small monthly competition for people who like thinking carefully about uncertainty. Three problems, three months, no code required. Each round we put up a question pulled from the kind of reasoning that shows up in trading, gambling, and statistics. You read the problem, work out an answer, write a short explanation, and submit. Once the round closes we score everyone and post a leaderboard.

The whole thing runs on the honour system. Submit what you reckon is right, show your working, and try to learn something.

Rules

  • Three submissions per round, total. You can update your answer up to three times before the round closes. The latest one is the one we score. Use them wisely.
  • Submissions need an answer in the format the problem asks for and at least 50 characters of reasoning.
  • Talking through a problem with friends is fine. Submitting the same answer and reasoning as someone else is not.
  • Using an LLM is allowed but discouraged. The point of this is to learn something, and the way you learn is by working through it yourself.
  • Ties are broken by earliest submission. If you and someone else end up on the same score, whoever locked it in first ranks higher.
  • Be civil. Display names that are abusive will be hidden from the leaderboard.

FAQ

How is scoring done?

Each problem has its own scoring rule, posted with the problem statement. Most rounds score on closeness to a correct answer under the model the problem describes. Higher score is better. Scoring is centralised. Reasoning is not directly scored, but it gets read and is used to spot dodgy submissions.

When are answers and rankings released?

After the round closes. The full answer key and a write-up go on the round's page. Final rankings appear on the leaderboard at the same time.

Can I use an LLM?

You can, but try not to. This is meant as a learning exercise. Most of the value is in working through the problem yourself, getting it wrong, and working out why.

Is there a prize?

Bragging rights and a spot on the leaderboard, for now. As the comp grows the plan is to bring on sponsors and offer real prizes for top finishers.

What happens to my data?

Your email is used for sign-in and the verification link, and never shared. Your display name and scores appear publicly on the leaderboard for closed rounds. Your written reasoning is private to you and to whoever is scoring.